...though the fallout will undoubtedly continue for decades to come.
BP's atrocity is now officially estimated at having reached 16 times worse than the Exxon Valdez, by as early as the end of June 2010...(and certainly much worse, for being so deep underwater), Dan Froomkin absolutely gets the final word in my book. Read the whole thing.
Showing posts with label BP live feed. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BP live feed. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Tuesday, June 08, 2010
Gulf of America Update ("we broke it, we own it" -Colbert)
• As fellow blogger John Emerson pedantically, and correctly notes: "'Awed' is the wrong word" here. (It only took the feds two months to catch on; surely companies like Exxon bound to be responsible for future atrocities will take note.)
• This comment about what caused the BP Macando blowout deserves widespread recognition.
• Also, read the articles in the left-hand column at McClatchy, one of the most reliable and reputable investigative journals out there. Particularly this one, this one, this one and last but certainly not least, this one (cf. last week).
• And, the plot thickens.
Meanwhile every day that passes BP fails to make meaningfully better what they gambled to make significantly worse last Thursday morning, or even to make it back to just as bad as it was the for the first 48 goddamn days....they aren't even going to try another approach, for another month. This would appear to be an acceptable state of affairs for BP, nearly two months on:
Can't help but notice BP is spraying carcinogenic dispersants like never before at the immediate opening (you can actually see the oil exploding into droplets on impact), most conveniently on the side being monitored by the most highly-publicized and most easily accessible feed (that is, the side most people are watching):
Once again, for all twelve BP Macondo blowout oil spill feeds, see this page for listed links: http://www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?categoryId=9033572&contentId=7062605
•
• I seem to have begun the occasional habit of leaving comments at TheOilDrum, sometimes with what I determine to be necessary and useful provocation partly in mind, I admit.
• This comment about what caused the BP Macando blowout deserves widespread recognition.
• Also, read the articles in the left-hand column at McClatchy, one of the most reliable and reputable investigative journals out there. Particularly this one, this one, this one and last but certainly not least, this one (cf. last week).
• And, the plot thickens.
Meanwhile every day that passes BP fails to make meaningfully better what they gambled to make significantly worse last Thursday morning, or even to make it back to just as bad as it was the for the first 48 goddamn days....they aren't even going to try another approach, for another month. This would appear to be an acceptable state of affairs for BP, nearly two months on:
Can't help but notice BP is spraying carcinogenic dispersants like never before at the immediate opening (you can actually see the oil exploding into droplets on impact), most conveniently on the side being monitored by the most highly-publicized and most easily accessible feed (that is, the side most people are watching):
Once again, for all twelve BP Macondo blowout oil spill feeds, see this page for listed links: http://www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?categoryId=9033572&contentId=7062605
•
• I seem to have begun the occasional habit of leaving comments at TheOilDrum, sometimes with what I determine to be necessary and useful provocation partly in mind, I admit.
Friday, June 04, 2010
Bleg
Sincere thanks to the many people who've commented and emailed over the course of the past week. Unfortunately though, and despite receiving more traffic than ever before in this humble blog's rather prolonged life, unless someone out there wants to drop $160 in my account via the "donate" paypal button on the sidebar there, I cannot afford to continue doing this. (I do have lots more video from live feeds saved, should anyone have any specific requests.)
(I am a woodworker by trade. In between and after crew time building cabinets or installing finish trimwork, I work overtime on my own little business (+ our old house, animals and extensive locust raised-bed gardens/greenhouses). Please feel free to visit my online shop, if interested.)
Thanks again.
Update June 5: No further "progress" to report. The blowout remains substantially worse than it was nearly two months ago, essentially the same since BP ripped it wide open and pinned a floating flower to its side/polished the turd, Thursday morning. It seems likely BP has just given up. Certainly most experts in the field were never very optimistic about any "solution" not involving relief wells, months hence, from the beginning.
Some light reading...
June 6: Honestly, the only serious effort BP appears to be making anymore is buying up search engine terms like "oil spill" and lying to the press. Their numbers don't exactly add up, either.
(I am a woodworker by trade. In between and after crew time building cabinets or installing finish trimwork, I work overtime on my own little business (+ our old house, animals and extensive locust raised-bed gardens/greenhouses). Please feel free to visit my online shop, if interested.)
Thanks again.
Update June 5: No further "progress" to report. The blowout remains substantially worse than it was nearly two months ago, essentially the same since BP ripped it wide open and pinned a floating flower to its side/polished the turd, Thursday morning. It seems likely BP has just given up. Certainly most experts in the field were never very optimistic about any "solution" not involving relief wells, months hence, from the beginning.
Some light reading...
June 6: Honestly, the only serious effort BP appears to be making anymore is buying up search engine terms like "oil spill" and lying to the press. Their numbers don't exactly add up, either.
A Pause, to Look at BP's Motives
(Now after 24 hours of BP's blowout gusher flowing at 20% more volume than ever before–seemingly much more, and spewing what appears to be much darker oil and less gas: The cap has been announced as officially "on" but the wellhead is still leaking furiously. They keep moving/flailing the cap around, the BOP is dangerously rocking, and they have yet to rescue/draw a single drop of oil, it seems. Nobody besides a few gullibles in the MSM is buying the "success" PR line.)
As a side note: Commentators at The Oil Drum kept repeating and insisting, the last 2-3 days, that the wellhead has been rendered unsuitable for production, that there are no plans for further producing from the well, etc, etc. While perhaps technically true, it seems a bit dishonest in a larger sense to me. Any oil they are able to capture and funnel to Discoverer Enterprise, from this relatively small wound on the ocean floor that has now been surgically ripped wide open (professionally and precisely, with a giant pair of shears, mind you)...they will process and sell, to the tune of 1.4 million/day or more, depending in part on how much is now erupting out of there. It seems obvious they had incentive to make this thing worse before it gets better. The "solution" (that was never any solution to begin with) might end up paying for a part (albeit tiny fraction) of their estimated 20-60 billion liabilities tab. Remember, this is a company that *nets* 6 billion every quarter.
9:30am: Still spraying carcinogenic Corexit like mad, 5,000 feet underwater (Update: nearly 2 million gallons of it, as of Saturday, June 5):
From a relevant comment at TOD:
As for myself, unfortunately, I cannot afford to keep doing this pro bono. Once again, there's a "donation" button on the sidebar if people are finding this site valuable and wish it to continue. Otherwise I need to get back to woodworking. My little etsy online shop is here for those who might be interested.
As a side note: Commentators at The Oil Drum kept repeating and insisting, the last 2-3 days, that the wellhead has been rendered unsuitable for production, that there are no plans for further producing from the well, etc, etc. While perhaps technically true, it seems a bit dishonest in a larger sense to me. Any oil they are able to capture and funnel to Discoverer Enterprise, from this relatively small wound on the ocean floor that has now been surgically ripped wide open (professionally and precisely, with a giant pair of shears, mind you)...they will process and sell, to the tune of 1.4 million/day or more, depending in part on how much is now erupting out of there. It seems obvious they had incentive to make this thing worse before it gets better. The "solution" (that was never any solution to begin with) might end up paying for a part (albeit tiny fraction) of their estimated 20-60 billion liabilities tab. Remember, this is a company that *nets* 6 billion every quarter.
9:30am: Still spraying carcinogenic Corexit like mad, 5,000 feet underwater (Update: nearly 2 million gallons of it, as of Saturday, June 5):
From a relevant comment at TOD:
E L on June 4, 2010 - 10:06am
I will tell you this. What’s going on above the surface makes this underwater fix look like a kid’s video game. Some of the most brilliant, money and blood thirsty financial minds, the same piranhas that brought you CDO’s and CDS’s and synthetic CDSs and mezzanine tranches and the Gaussian cupola are circling BP like a sick guppy. They can smell multi-million $$$ bonuses. BP’s protectors are the British government and the poison pill of untold damages. And every BP suit smells the stink of his own fear right now.
As for myself, unfortunately, I cannot afford to keep doing this pro bono. Once again, there's a "donation" button on the sidebar if people are finding this site valuable and wish it to continue. Otherwise I need to get back to woodworking. My little etsy online shop is here for those who might be interested.
Thursday, June 03, 2010
A Summary of Thursday's "Progress" by BP
The liveblog from today is below (with video and photos). The list of live feeds is available here. I recommend this one, this one, and this one to watch tonight (Or at least as of 11pm. I won't be watching.)
In light of mainstream media reporting, and to summon a little bit of that deeper historical conscience or pathos of indignation that would seem to be appropriate now, it might be sensible to note that British Petroleum has "succeeded" today only insofar as they have been able to jerry-rig their way to a somewhat mangled and uncertain completion of only the first step of their two-step "solution" (after 24 hours of no progress whatsoever as their original efforts yesterday, and original plan, failed). A two-step solution, btw, which in reality is no solution at all, even if it proves to be possible (itself the subject of rather contentious debate among the most expert and informed members of the public with industry and engineering experience, despite most of them speculating in a "democratic" environment where literally mountains of crucial data are no doubt being censored as "proprietary knowledge," or just plain not being released, or made transparent). BP's own most optimistic estimates (before the mangling and jerry-rigging) were to capture "half" of what is currently gushing from beneath the ocean floor. They have "succeeded" so far today, only in making the situation significantly worse, to a degree where it is unknown in fact whether one half the current flow would even be much, if indeed any, improvement on before(!) BP isn't sharing their real flow rate and other data, needless to say, because it isn't in their corporate interest to reveal what is every day becoming more and more clearly the true scope of this greed-made disaster. And nobody is forcing them to, despite being entrusted (to the tune of 6 billion dollars pure profit every quarter) with precisely such public responsibility.
In conclusion: BP's own guess for tonight's "step two" may not reduce the flow at all from its rate previously. Worst case scenario: downward pressure causes the BOP to blowout, be further damaged in some way, or even worse a fresh rupture occurs in the casing of the pipe far beneath the seabed. THE CURRENT GEYSER VOLCANO COULD DOUBLE, OR WHO THE FUCK KNOWS WHAT (OR WHERE).
To illustrate the point as bluntly as possible. This is what has been erupting from the BP blowout, since before 11am this morning (that makes 10.5 hours now, not counting the 12+hours during which time the riser was merely half-severed). To get any real sense of the magnitude of this ongoing atrocity in real time, one really must force oneself to watch the clips in their entirety:
Remember this short clip?
BP calls this "progress." I call it being under pressure of the entire world's gaze to fix what now more resembles a volcanic inferno, like never before.
Unsurprisingly, but despairingly, the official government estimates remain corrupt and inaccurate and in dire need of serious updating.
Some inevitable, heartbreaking pictures are today's real news. Surely realizing from historical precedent (and because not a single thing has been put in place to prevent or fix these sorts of problems in 30 years–on the dramatic contrary, thanks largely to the decade lost to Bush), British Petroleum tried to postpone the capture and dissemination of these sorts of front page, public outrage-awakening images as long as possible, by spraying all that illegal, carcinogenic and microbe-killing dispersant that hides from public eyes as much as 59/60ths of the total flow, a PR decision which may well prove far, far more catastrophic for the ocean and for our general health as a nation (and global economy) in the long run:
http://www.bostom.com/bigpicture/2010/06/caught_in_the_oil.html
In light of which, I for one would very much like to see a version of the following that seeks to take account of all the oil and dispersant in the water column...anyone? Even with such a more complex map, we can expect more than one nation on this earth to be surprised to discover the effects of BP dispersant "dead zones," months, years and decades hence, in completely unexpected places (and with zero accountability).
In light of mainstream media reporting, and to summon a little bit of that deeper historical conscience or pathos of indignation that would seem to be appropriate now, it might be sensible to note that British Petroleum has "succeeded" today only insofar as they have been able to jerry-rig their way to a somewhat mangled and uncertain completion of only the first step of their two-step "solution" (after 24 hours of no progress whatsoever as their original efforts yesterday, and original plan, failed). A two-step solution, btw, which in reality is no solution at all, even if it proves to be possible (itself the subject of rather contentious debate among the most expert and informed members of the public with industry and engineering experience, despite most of them speculating in a "democratic" environment where literally mountains of crucial data are no doubt being censored as "proprietary knowledge," or just plain not being released, or made transparent). BP's own most optimistic estimates (before the mangling and jerry-rigging) were to capture "half" of what is currently gushing from beneath the ocean floor. They have "succeeded" so far today, only in making the situation significantly worse, to a degree where it is unknown in fact whether one half the current flow would even be much, if indeed any, improvement on before(!) BP isn't sharing their real flow rate and other data, needless to say, because it isn't in their corporate interest to reveal what is every day becoming more and more clearly the true scope of this greed-made disaster. And nobody is forcing them to, despite being entrusted (to the tune of 6 billion dollars pure profit every quarter) with precisely such public responsibility.
In conclusion: BP's own guess for tonight's "step two" may not reduce the flow at all from its rate previously. Worst case scenario: downward pressure causes the BOP to blowout, be further damaged in some way, or even worse a fresh rupture occurs in the casing of the pipe far beneath the seabed. THE CURRENT GEYSER VOLCANO COULD DOUBLE, OR WHO THE FUCK KNOWS WHAT (OR WHERE).
To illustrate the point as bluntly as possible. This is what has been erupting from the BP blowout, since before 11am this morning (that makes 10.5 hours now, not counting the 12+hours during which time the riser was merely half-severed). To get any real sense of the magnitude of this ongoing atrocity in real time, one really must force oneself to watch the clips in their entirety:
Remember this short clip?
BP calls this "progress." I call it being under pressure of the entire world's gaze to fix what now more resembles a volcanic inferno, like never before.
Unsurprisingly, but despairingly, the official government estimates remain corrupt and inaccurate and in dire need of serious updating.
Some inevitable, heartbreaking pictures are today's real news. Surely realizing from historical precedent (and because not a single thing has been put in place to prevent or fix these sorts of problems in 30 years–on the dramatic contrary, thanks largely to the decade lost to Bush), British Petroleum tried to postpone the capture and dissemination of these sorts of front page, public outrage-awakening images as long as possible, by spraying all that illegal, carcinogenic and microbe-killing dispersant that hides from public eyes as much as 59/60ths of the total flow, a PR decision which may well prove far, far more catastrophic for the ocean and for our general health as a nation (and global economy) in the long run:
http://www.bostom.com/bigpicture/2010/06/caught_in_the_oil.html
In light of which, I for one would very much like to see a version of the following that seeks to take account of all the oil and dispersant in the water column...anyone? Even with such a more complex map, we can expect more than one nation on this earth to be surprised to discover the effects of BP dispersant "dead zones," months, years and decades hence, in completely unexpected places (and with zero accountability).
Cutting the riser (again) (liveblog)
(Yesterday's liveblog is below.)
(UPDATE 10am: For the first time all 12 live feeds are currently available through BP on this page, although not all of them appear to be working: http://www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?categoryId=9033572&contentId=7062605)
Have at it, blogosphere. I need to focus on making a living (there's a tip jar on the side, or better yet buy something from my shop).
(Most interesting live feeds thus far are: here and here.)
12:46: Expect to see a lot more dark oil on the surface shortly...this thing is blowing black like never before...
Another relevant comment cherry-picked from TOD:
12pm. Rate of flow/hour now?
11:39am: Close-up of the spewing well (video momentarily). Where are all those independent experts who originally claimed up to 100,000 barrels/day in congressional testimony, before the riser was removed?
11amET: Video and images below. Riser has finally been removed. Cut is ugly. It looks as though one interior pipe was clogged(?), possibly with "junk" from Friday (update: no, I think now that was an illusion), and they are continuing to spray carcinogenic, illegal and untested Corexit into the now simply monstrous plume, from about 100ft above. One commenter at TOD sez, "If they don't get this capped with something soon, I'll expect to be seeing oil up in Canada." It has never looked this bad, during the entire past month and a half. All eyes on BP now to follow through with its plan to siphon "the majority" of this, and on its promise to act quickly to remedy this situation they've now "succeeded" in making much worse before they can make it better....
9:31am: Man it is just pouring out of there...seen from roughly 100 feet above, where they are very clearly spraying dispersants, continuously:
9:20: Some video from an hour ago. They are currently doing an excellent job blocking any real view of the plume. Lots and lots of dispersants, looks like.
9:04am: Volcano is more like it. Jesus Christ. Someone at TOD sez:
Someone else:
8:14am:
7:40am ET: Here we go, finally...after much fumbling and jerry rigging all night long, apparently. The "plan" is to use the giant shear to cut the riser at the BOP, where the band saw previously got stuck less than 1/2 way through its cut (so they say). Oil is pouring out the cut and probably obscuring the vision of the (perhaps very tired) ROV operators. Looks like a goddamn inferno. This was probably the best comment at TOD, overnight, along with discussion about potentially fragile state of pipe below the BOP (as was found out when BP abandoned "junk shot" for fear of a blow-out beneath the sea bed):
(UPDATE 10am: For the first time all 12 live feeds are currently available through BP on this page, although not all of them appear to be working: http://www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?categoryId=9033572&contentId=7062605)
Have at it, blogosphere. I need to focus on making a living (there's a tip jar on the side, or better yet buy something from my shop).
(Most interesting live feeds thus far are: here and here.)
12:46: Expect to see a lot more dark oil on the surface shortly...this thing is blowing black like never before...
Another relevant comment cherry-picked from TOD:
[new] goodmanj on June 3, 2010 - 12:15pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
Okay, as a fluid mechanics guy, I'm watching some extreme closeups of the exit at the top of the cut riser, and I'm *fascinated*. You've got this violently turbulent mixed oil/gas flow, and every now and again you get a surge of gas coming up. You can see the white gas bubbles blast out into the water, and then I *think* you can actually see the gas react with water to form clathrate! The texture and color change suddenly, it looks like a "crust" forms on the outside of the bubble plume, and the crusty stuff rises much more slowly than the bubbles.
Another observation: we're about to start seeing a *lot* more oil at the surface of the Gulf until they get this capped. Before they cut off the riser, we were seeing highly emulsified tiny droplets coming out of the leaks -- basically the aerosol spray can effect. The orange color we saw indicates the droplets were small enough to be partially transparent. But now you can see solid oil coming out the cut end, and the plume is pitch black, meaning the droplets are much larger, and will rise to the surface a lot faster, where the TV helicopters can see it. Better get that cap on quick!
... and I just notice that the Skandi Neptune "dispersant ops" ROV has started pumping out a *lot* more dispersant. Maybe BP figured this out too.
Quick back-of-the-envelope rate calculation of flow rate. The good news is, we can now see the oil+gas coming out "pure", and don't have to worry about mixing and entrainment with water. The flow right at the exit of the riser seems to rise 1 riser diameter in about 0.5-1.0 seconds. If the riser's 21 inches in diameter, that works out to a flow of OIL + GAS of 0.15-0.3 m^3/s. If that were all oil, that'd work out to 80,000-160,000 barrels a day! Last month we talked a lot about oil/gas ratios, amount of gas dissolved in the oil, etc. The flow seems to have much less gas in it than it used to, by my eye, but it's still quite possible that half or 2/3 of this is gas. So I'd say we could be anywhere from 20,000 to 60,000 barrels a day at the moment.
Still, I did a similar calculation last month that guesstimated in the 15,000-30,000 bpd range. Lots of later calculations came out in the same ballpark. Now, I think I can safely say the flow is above that number.
12pm. Rate of flow/hour now?
11:39am: Close-up of the spewing well (video momentarily). Where are all those independent experts who originally claimed up to 100,000 barrels/day in congressional testimony, before the riser was removed?
11amET: Video and images below. Riser has finally been removed. Cut is ugly. It looks as though one interior pipe was clogged(?), possibly with "junk" from Friday (update: no, I think now that was an illusion), and they are continuing to spray carcinogenic, illegal and untested Corexit into the now simply monstrous plume, from about 100ft above. One commenter at TOD sez, "If they don't get this capped with something soon, I'll expect to be seeing oil up in Canada." It has never looked this bad, during the entire past month and a half. All eyes on BP now to follow through with its plan to siphon "the majority" of this, and on its promise to act quickly to remedy this situation they've now "succeeded" in making much worse before they can make it better....
9:31am: Man it is just pouring out of there...seen from roughly 100 feet above, where they are very clearly spraying dispersants, continuously:
9:20: Some video from an hour ago. They are currently doing an excellent job blocking any real view of the plume. Lots and lots of dispersants, looks like.
9:04am: Volcano is more like it. Jesus Christ. Someone at TOD sez:
watching this happen now, I'm having a really bad feeling about their chances of getting the LMRP cap on against this flow.
Despite the incredible skill of the operator, the ROV is flying blind, with a total blackout of oil across the lens except for the occasional glimpse of the BOP
I do wonder if maybe the kink was holding back the pressure much more than we all thought . . .
Someone else:
I think the battleship just got displaced from the cover of that bad ideas book.
8:14am:
7:40am ET: Here we go, finally...after much fumbling and jerry rigging all night long, apparently. The "plan" is to use the giant shear to cut the riser at the BOP, where the band saw previously got stuck less than 1/2 way through its cut (so they say). Oil is pouring out the cut and probably obscuring the vision of the (perhaps very tired) ROV operators. Looks like a goddamn inferno. This was probably the best comment at TOD, overnight, along with discussion about potentially fragile state of pipe below the BOP (as was found out when BP abandoned "junk shot" for fear of a blow-out beneath the sea bed):
Monday, May 31, 2010
Cutting the riser (liveblog)
(Once again, for those interested much fuller explanation of what's happening is in the most recent comments here.)
Thurs 7:39am: See new post.
10:30pm: Yes they are...dispersing like mad. The camera has been showing "Dispersant Ops," busy gas-looking nozzles with shut-off levers, gas, etc. Remember that Corexit 9500 is a known carcinogen, banned in the UK for surface use. But not only that. It has never been tested at 5,000 feet underwater, and it kills the microbes that consume the oil (see recent comments at TOD for research links). The only thing it doesn't damage is BP's pocketbook (they own the company that makes it, which is why they never followed the direct order by the EPA to find less toxic substitutes). It isn't just "soap" and ice cream. It doesn't disappear the oil, but only breaks it into tiny drops that are consumable by organisms (if there are still any left, not dead), and then becomes exponentially more toxic as it moves up the food chain. Update: or maybe not? Who the fuck knows.
8:09pm: As we continue to wait...I must say I've learned an awful lot in the last few days from The Oil Drum, despite the odd balance between BP/oil industry apologists and conspiracy ignoramuses (I've been accused of saying things that peg me as the latter, never confused for the former). But also being a longtime carpenter, I feel much affinity for the tone as well as substance of this comment (excerpted):
2:43pm: Some video and screencaps of pulling off the band saw (after 12 hours of zero progress, only a visibly worse spill rate). Appear to be hauling broken cutter, or parts of cutter to the surface (no back-up? Any builder could have (and did) predict this thing pinching when the pipe moved and getting stuck (they're trying to cut through two different walls of pipe, btw). At this point it all looks like another disastrous failure of a day, to me. Imagine it will take some time to clean up and regroup. Comments express frustration that ROV's are not performing like CNC routers, keep dropping things, wondering if saw may have been frozen, better ways to attach the new LMRP without sawing, etc. at TOD (just as surely followed by "hey, let's give the experts at BP the benefit of the doubt"-type comments) (While you're waiting for that site to load, see around the 6:40 mark for the only "progress" in twelve hours, below):
Below is some dramatic video footage taken just prior to the above, then screencaps:
1:40pm:Cutting again? Finally yanked the stuck saw cord loose, dramatically. Plume seems to have substantially worsened, darkened:
12:35pm: Still stuck, bad. For roughly 12 hours now, the band saw has been stuck...kind of embarrassing/infuriating. Not sure about the lighter plume, top left...are they spraying more dispersants down there? ABC's cam has been all over the place, lately.
11:15am: Just a reminder of two things: the first image is BP's yet-again revised "plan" (for which they are giving themselves another week, but those following live can expect to know much sooner). The second image remains the only real plan with any chance of stopping, or most likely even significantly reducing the flow (which is expected to increase by 20% or more once they get the saw unstuck and complete the cut begun last night). The second relief well has been halted from time to time to make resources available for BP's theatrics with robots, a process marred by repeated setbacks (documented below and all over the internets the last 24 hours) and as yet remaining unsuccessful (with some of the most risky and unprecedented steps still lying ahead of us):
Wed 11am ET: The diamond-cutter band saw has been stuck/not functioning since around 12 midnight, and is still not cutting yet. A bad-ass looking saw, but apparently not bad-ass enough:
They are trying to maneuver the bent riser with the Shear (not working), pulling the straps on the riser, etc. We see the riser assembly again just now:
11:33pm: Diamond-cutter saw engulfed in oil as it cuts, with view of plume mountain in a rare illumination by ROV:
11:00pm: Stopped for a minute, then restarted. We've lost the 2nd CNN feed/distant view.
10:55pm:
10:33pm: CNN cam:
10:20pm: Second cut proceeding at a very deliberate pace, appears to have pierced the riser. Not sure what to expect, but probably a great deal of oil (as the pressure should be greater, without the kink)...this will be our first (likely blacked-out) view of the full force of the flow from beneath the ocean...
8:53pm: CNN's angle looks bad:
BOP actually doesn't look so bad, from this angle...(relatively):
8:33pm: Looks like the craw finally got it (video here), pipe is severed and hanging by the harness. Tremendous pressure at the BOP. Now for that second cut...and the cap (yeah fucking right)! So they've succeeded in making the spill lots worse...let's see the solution to making it only as bad as it was ten minutes ago, perhaps negligibly better. Cross your fingers, seriously.
8:15pm: Well after it looked like they were failing again, the craw has succeeded in causing some damage. Pressure at the BOP still seems about the same...perhaps slightly less, or redirected...
7:41pm: I'm tired of this circus.
6:55pm: Pipe is naked. Here comes the craw...again:
6:30-6:39pm: Smokin'...as we in the woodworking/building industry say:
4:34pm ET: So they're back at it, apparently. Double-teaming cuts on the choke and kill lines (not filled with oil)...second time's the charm, that's it fellas...(weather's rolling in). CNN currently has split multi-cams of the day's theatrics...No word on those relief wells or whether BP's CEO is still denying the existence of underwater plumes or not.
Red-jacketed BP guy tethers(?) the ROV, resurfaced inside a ship, looks like:
2:15pm ET: Apparently BP has given up on the shear at the top of the BOP, as well. ROV ascending. Check off another day of complete failure. Remember, people are just getting sick from food poisoning.
2:03pm ET: ABC has different footage, of what appears to be the blown top of the BOP. Just a huge volcano, no separate plumes...update, now they've changed the view again. The BOP plume always looks worse from above. Still bleeding profusely, and not successfully severed.
Is it just me, or does both the blow-out and the riser leak look about equally bad now (and for some time)...this after how many weeks of claiming one was "much smaller" than the other...
1:03pm ET: Suppose also they might be in part posing the feed for CNN's news coverage now...don't expect to learn anything that you didn't know last Friday.
12:32-12:53pmET: The folks in the chat room are worshiping The Craw, as it squeezes...Or, like Chuck Norris, waits...For all we know they are making the other cut on top of the BOP now, and just not showing us the carnage...
12:17pm ET: And we're back. Hard to tell where all the oil's coming from, but there seems to an awful lot of it. Some video. The craw is still attached...AND SQUEEZING:
12:07pm ET: Cnn's feed is back...No, now they're both censored, looks like giant plume and other ROV lights visible way down below:
Was briefly showing top of BOP (where there is supposed to be another cut)...unclear if that was live or looped:
12:01pm ET: They're not showing us shit, just the feed from ROV watching other two ROVs inspecting the BOP.
11:41am ET: Now that the original choke and kill lines are now apparently satisfactorily cut...just waiting for the craw (with all eyes simultaneously on the BOP, which doesn't look good...oil coming from beneath?)
Another bit of levity from chat (#theoildrum):
11:10am ET:
10:54am ET: Looks likes a good'nuff cut...apparently not. Check out the other ROV (whose feed is censored) in the background.
10:35am ET: This would seem like a delicate juncture...don't cut too much. Still ostensibly cleaning up the little lines so the craw can shear the main one (?) Looks like just a carbide steel finish blade...the kind on my table saw.
They cut CNN's feed some time ago.
Support the campaign to lobby for more relief wells (should have happened weeks ago).
Now the blade is stuck...now making progress...
10:21am ET: Almost thru...
10:06am ET: My video upload of dropped saw should be processed momentarily, followed by video of recovered saw...now playing with various saw blades (all this reminds me of what I *should* be doing).
9:50amET: Operator drops the saw. Stock market plunges:
9:48am ET: Ok, they're showing us again...giant shears/diamond saw in action:
9:41am ET: Video clips from 9am-9:30am, during which time BP takes our eyes away from what is happening...people are furious (naturally). Will keep watching...
9:38am ET: Video clips uploading to you-tube...At least two other ROV's are watching the action, and this is the view that BP gives the public:
9:21am ET Now their blocking us from seeing what is happening...
Closest thing to a running commentary, once again, is here (enter your free register Oil Drum "nickname" and then #theoildrum in the boxes). The actual cutting may take around two minutes. The pipe is expected to bend at the cut, and release a shitload of oil (obviously)...from the moment the riser is cut, the amount of oil being spilled will increase dramatically (from the already third worse spill in history, at 70,000-100,000 barrels/day), so the next sequence of events is fairly crucial.
Update 8:50am ET (Tuesday): There is clearly another ROV helping guide the craw, visible in this capture, but we're not getting to see that feed (perhaps never have been).
Update: My that's a big pair of shears. Things may be about to get quite ugly.
See links in the comments, and here's another more or less recent vid. Top screencaps are from around 8:30am ET, LMRP image is from earlier (BP's feed appears to be looping, but CNN's is here).
From here:
...is presumably the next momentous thing that needs to happen (if it hasn't already). All kinds of risks involved, one would imagine. Updated post is below; I may continue to update this one (mostly for myself, if no-one minds). They are currently maneuvering the piece that goes on the cut riser. We may be about to get a look at the riser...but probably more likely just the (leaking) package.
Thurs 7:39am: See new post.
10:30pm: Yes they are...dispersing like mad. The camera has been showing "Dispersant Ops," busy gas-looking nozzles with shut-off levers, gas, etc. Remember that Corexit 9500 is a known carcinogen, banned in the UK for surface use. But not only that. It has never been tested at 5,000 feet underwater, and it kills the microbes that consume the oil (see recent comments at TOD for research links). The only thing it doesn't damage is BP's pocketbook (they own the company that makes it, which is why they never followed the direct order by the EPA to find less toxic substitutes). It isn't just "soap" and ice cream. It doesn't disappear the oil, but only breaks it into tiny drops that are consumable by organisms (if there are still any left, not dead), and then becomes exponentially more toxic as it moves up the food chain. Update: or maybe not? Who the fuck knows.
8:09pm: As we continue to wait...I must say I've learned an awful lot in the last few days from The Oil Drum, despite the odd balance between BP/oil industry apologists and conspiracy ignoramuses (I've been accused of saying things that peg me as the latter, never confused for the former). But also being a longtime carpenter, I feel much affinity for the tone as well as substance of this comment (excerpted):
This blog at The Oil Drum is by far the most informative source I’ve found about the current BP Gulf blow out. It is filled with concerned people with a wide range of different expertise....I’ve learned a lot about deep well drilling, far more than I knew before starting. The post on Mud Drills was mind boggling. I wish that some of you could feed your wealth of information to the general media which has very little sophistication on this highly specialized topic. The Media often repeats the same simple information over and over.
Presently the live feed from BP.com shows virtually nothing and has been this way for at least the last 45 minutes (now 4PM west coast). Why BP doesn’t show something more informative from one of the half a dozen ROVs that must be down there is annoying. When BP originally was pressured to make a video feed available to the public it showed a bank of screens with maybe 8-12 screens and even had audio into the control room. Now they only show one screen with no audio, and almost never switch ROVs. They could do more.
As a long time carpenter who has dealt with saw blades usually cutting wood but often cutting pipe I was dismayed to see them set up their clever diamond wire band saw to start the cut on the side of the bend. Many here have already pointed out that to minimize or even avoid jamming a blade you always cut so the force of the drop piece you are cutting is away from the blade, in this instance at the back of the bend of the riser.
2:43pm: Some video and screencaps of pulling off the band saw (after 12 hours of zero progress, only a visibly worse spill rate). Appear to be hauling broken cutter, or parts of cutter to the surface (no back-up? Any builder could have (and did) predict this thing pinching when the pipe moved and getting stuck (they're trying to cut through two different walls of pipe, btw). At this point it all looks like another disastrous failure of a day, to me. Imagine it will take some time to clean up and regroup. Comments express frustration that ROV's are not performing like CNC routers, keep dropping things, wondering if saw may have been frozen, better ways to attach the new LMRP without sawing, etc. at TOD (just as surely followed by "hey, let's give the experts at BP the benefit of the doubt"-type comments) (While you're waiting for that site to load, see around the 6:40 mark for the only "progress" in twelve hours, below):
Below is some dramatic video footage taken just prior to the above, then screencaps:
1:40pm:
12:35pm: Still stuck, bad. For roughly 12 hours now, the band saw has been stuck...kind of embarrassing/infuriating. Not sure about the lighter plume, top left...are they spraying more dispersants down there? ABC's cam has been all over the place, lately.
11:15am: Just a reminder of two things: the first image is BP's yet-again revised "plan" (for which they are giving themselves another week, but those following live can expect to know much sooner). The second image remains the only real plan with any chance of stopping, or most likely even significantly reducing the flow (which is expected to increase by 20% or more once they get the saw unstuck and complete the cut begun last night). The second relief well has been halted from time to time to make resources available for BP's theatrics with robots, a process marred by repeated setbacks (documented below and all over the internets the last 24 hours) and as yet remaining unsuccessful (with some of the most risky and unprecedented steps still lying ahead of us):
Wed 11am ET: The diamond-cutter band saw has been stuck/not functioning since around 12 midnight, and is still not cutting yet. A bad-ass looking saw, but apparently not bad-ass enough:
They are trying to maneuver the bent riser with the Shear (not working), pulling the straps on the riser, etc. We see the riser assembly again just now:
11:33pm: Diamond-cutter saw engulfed in oil as it cuts, with view of plume mountain in a rare illumination by ROV:
11:00pm: Stopped for a minute, then restarted. We've lost the 2nd CNN feed/distant view.
10:55pm:
10:33pm: CNN cam:
10:20pm: Second cut proceeding at a very deliberate pace, appears to have pierced the riser. Not sure what to expect, but probably a great deal of oil (as the pressure should be greater, without the kink)...this will be our first (likely blacked-out) view of the full force of the flow from beneath the ocean...
8:53pm: CNN's angle looks bad:
BOP actually doesn't look so bad, from this angle...(relatively):
8:33pm: Looks like the craw finally got it (video here), pipe is severed and hanging by the harness. Tremendous pressure at the BOP. Now for that second cut...and the cap (yeah fucking right)! So they've succeeded in making the spill lots worse...let's see the solution to making it only as bad as it was ten minutes ago, perhaps negligibly better. Cross your fingers, seriously.
8:15pm: Well after it looked like they were failing again, the craw has succeeded in causing some damage. Pressure at the BOP still seems about the same...perhaps slightly less, or redirected...
7:41pm: I'm tired of this circus.
6:55pm: Pipe is naked. Here comes the craw...again:
6:30-6:39pm: Smokin'...as we in the woodworking/building industry say:
4:34pm ET: So they're back at it, apparently. Double-teaming cuts on the choke and kill lines (not filled with oil)...second time's the charm, that's it fellas...(weather's rolling in). CNN currently has split multi-cams of the day's theatrics...No word on those relief wells or whether BP's CEO is still denying the existence of underwater plumes or not.
Red-jacketed BP guy tethers(?) the ROV, resurfaced inside a ship, looks like:
2:15pm ET: Apparently BP has given up on the shear at the top of the BOP, as well. ROV ascending. Check off another day of complete failure. Remember, people are just getting sick from food poisoning.
2:03pm ET: ABC has different footage, of what appears to be the blown top of the BOP. Just a huge volcano, no separate plumes...update, now they've changed the view again. The BOP plume always looks worse from above. Still bleeding profusely, and not successfully severed.
Is it just me, or does both the blow-out and the riser leak look about equally bad now (and for some time)...this after how many weeks of claiming one was "much smaller" than the other...
1:03pm ET: Suppose also they might be in part posing the feed for CNN's news coverage now...don't expect to learn anything that you didn't know last Friday.
12:32-12:53pmET: The folks in the chat room are worshiping The Craw, as it squeezes...Or, like Chuck Norris, waits...For all we know they are making the other cut on top of the BOP now, and just not showing us the carnage...
12:17pm ET: And we're back. Hard to tell where all the oil's coming from, but there seems to an awful lot of it. Some video. The craw is still attached...AND SQUEEZING:
12:07pm ET: Cnn's feed is back...No, now they're both censored, looks like giant plume and other ROV lights visible way down below:
Was briefly showing top of BOP (where there is supposed to be another cut)...unclear if that was live or looped:
12:01pm ET: They're not showing us shit, just the feed from ROV watching other two ROVs inspecting the BOP.
11:41am ET: Now that the original choke and kill lines are now apparently satisfactorily cut...just waiting for the craw (with all eyes simultaneously on the BOP, which doesn't look good...oil coming from beneath?)
Another bit of levity from chat (#theoildrum):
[11:39]Who is directing this movie? Is he sleeping on the job? Someone please pick up the board and shout, "Action!"
[11:39]Very confsing, since the action is cut
[11:39]this is the longest video i have seen
[11:39] == The_Deacon [~cf463e3a@gateway/web/freenode/x-twaoiunugshqblmj] has left #theoildrum []
[11:39]if the flight attendant's had been so careful to check around, no one would get stuck in a plane
[11:39]Ha. The video from the other side is probably lit up like a Hollywood movie set. We are getting the dark side.
[11:39]some 10+ hours straight
[11:39] == RoyGBivv [~4bc51e32@gateway/web/freenode/x-thjdsvzgqayafyrc] has joined #theoildrum
[11:39]Lerch: yeah, it is pretty close to where they noted it on their press release picture...
[11:40]I am surprised they didn't rig the CRAW with a light and a camera..
[11:40]What is BP hiding?
[11:40]somebody call BP and tell them we're bored
[11:40]no need to hurry; BP's buying time for the relief wells.
11:10am ET:
10:54am ET: Looks likes a good'nuff cut...apparently not. Check out the other ROV (whose feed is censored) in the background.
10:35am ET: This would seem like a delicate juncture...don't cut too much. Still ostensibly cleaning up the little lines so the craw can shear the main one (?) Looks like just a carbide steel finish blade...the kind on my table saw.
They cut CNN's feed some time ago.
Support the campaign to lobby for more relief wells (should have happened weeks ago).
Now the blade is stuck...now making progress...
10:21am ET: Almost thru...
10:06am ET: My video upload of dropped saw should be processed momentarily, followed by video of recovered saw...now playing with various saw blades (all this reminds me of what I *should* be doing).
9:50amET: Operator drops the saw. Stock market plunges:
[09:52]saw stuck
[09:52]Yakkety Sax
[09:52]it was 15%
[09:52] == Guest3783 [~pjstarifa@92.24.205.77] has joined #theoildrum
[09:52]joe: wow
[09:52]Kisses much sweeter than wine...
[09:52]gotta keep it straight
[09:52] == Barrel [~d953decc@gateway/web/freenode/x-ticjyirnbnclqyvg] has quit [Quit: Page closed]
[09:52]but low
[09:52]buy*
[09:52]Was down 15.5 earlier
[09:52]eve of destruction
[09:52]the drillers are getting crushed too
[09:53]Smoke on the water?
[09:53]Hayward is toast.
[09:53]measure once, cut 14 times
[09:53] == jg [~janisgore@adsl-67-143-117.shv.bellsouth.net] has quit []
[09:53] == beepee_ [~62fa9963@gateway/web/freenode/x-hsyhbnltisjsdyfc] has joined #theoildrum
[09:53]there is a lot of uncertainty about how the government will crack down on the oilfield
[09:53]transocean down 6 right now
[09:53]what's the point of cutting these? if the craw is just going to snip straight through.....
[09:53] == robderr [~robjderr@rrcs-71-43-147-178.se.biz.rr.com] has joined #theoildrum
[09:53]hate to think what the market will do if this fails
[09:53]BP should sell for zero, imagine if the shareholders are held partially responsible, who would want that
[09:53] == andy2010 [~7a6b67b0@gateway/web/freenode/x-pknzrartkmpqmner] has joined #theoildrum
[09:53] == Dunvegan [~4c66c493@gateway/web/freenode/x-tocfkhkqckuueyxo] has joined #theoildrum
[09:53]he's going to buff to pipe.
[09:53]The market is being slow, thier only just now reacting to the news from last Friday that the top kill failed.
[09:53]they're always losing grip on that saw
[09:53] == tribat [~41055062@gateway/web/freenode/x-lcjcedyqrngfckwy] has joined #theoildrum
[09:53] == Orez [~c6080418@gateway/web/freenode/x-tjulsgjladttgjdt] has joined #theoildrum
[09:53]hey there's the saw rack again
[09:53]NOOOOO
[09:53]oops
[09:53]Saw fell D:< [09:53] dropped
[09:53]there goes the saw
[09:54]told you
[09:54]saw is not a lever
[09:54]@#$%!
[09:54]oh no
[09:54]Did I miss the giant CRAW action??
[09:54]ah damn it
[09:54]oops
[09:54]NOT a lever
[09:54]wtf were they doing?
[09:54]genius
[09:54]at least that's what the kids are calling it these days.
[09:54]this happens everyttime
[09:54]BP Exec: Goddammit, forget the saw. Just crimp it
[09:54]sawdrop?
[09:54] == oldmanmike [~4aeb8b68@gateway/web/freenode/x-wtcopbfrfmjntcwj] has quit [Quit: Page closed]
[09:54]he was wedging it in there to get a better grip
[09:54] == Barrel [~d953d4c0@gateway/web/freenode/x-kpjahorcmdfvubsd] has joined #theoildrum
[09:54]it was falling off already
[09:54]dropped the saw again
[09:54]looks like we're gonna need another Timmy!
[09:54]didn't get it in there very good
[09:54]surely saw was on tether...
[09:54]saw gone. :-(
[09:54]Yes, tethered
[09:54]heh this guys like "I fail at life"
[09:54]I believe he was trying to straighten out the blade - or wedge it in so he could reset his grip on the handle.
[09:54]they mus tbe able to pull it up by its lines
[09:54]rats
[09:54]thats crazy bp is trading at 2003 levels
[09:54]Didn't anyone ever teach you to treat your toold better than that, a saw is not a crowbar!
[09:54]they have little helper bots down there to fetch, right?
[09:54]... think maybe they're cutting a section of the small pipe to give the craw more room?
[09:54]he's hanging his metal head in shame
[09:54]no watch the stockmarket
[09:54]its back
[09:54]now
[09:54]i bet we see them get frustrated and say fuck it--- craw that thing...
[09:54]yeah, there it is
[09:55]your saw fell post hit before i saw it on the my BP feed- wtf
[09:55]So...What now? CRAW too small to fit around riser??
[09:55]got it with the other hand
[09:55] == seph_ [~4baf9034@gateway/web/freenode/x-enkmcgnqhufdvaxd] has joined #theoildrum
[09:55]smoke: maybe you were right on the buy
[09:55]haha helper rov :)
[09:55]Good thing there is more than one ROV there. :)
[09:55]yeah, saw's back!
[09:55]Oh, this should help Hayward; BP just hired Dick Cheney's press secretary to handle PR.
[09:55]how is the market reacting to the saw drop
[09:55]no i think the cuts are to help manipulate the crimp
[09:55]nurse rov
[09:55]smoke: bp is at 2003 levels right now
[09:55] == flocca-m [~rooms@94.163.87.121] has joined #theoildrum
[09:55] == evnow [~62edcc1e@gateway/web/freenode/x-rgqcozkohogjofgs] has joined #theoildrum
[09:55]make its job easier
[09:55] == Jpeg [~c2a9eb42@gateway/web/freenode/x-ctfsusibgokwtsot] has joined #theoildrum
[09:55]the saw blade is prob stainless 2 diamond teeth worth more than my house
[09:55]isn't it connected to a ROV or so in case it falls of so it's not in the mud?
[09:55]the crazy thing is that 2003 was SEVEN YEARS AGO!
[09:55]yes the helper bots are called fluffers
[09:55] == dd2_ [~475ea85a@gateway/web/freenode/x-eufmxrcopqyfsgjq] has joined #theoildrum
[09:55]those are some wicked saw teeth
[09:55]Saw back.
[09:55]the CRAW doesn't look too small but heck more room is hardly ever bad
[09:55]would be funny if they loose a million in stock every time he drops the saw
[09:55]CRAW not wide enough for all the pipes
[09:55]smoke: lol i know
[09:56]oceaneering is even down almost 6%
[09:56] == ablebaker99 [ablebaker@pool-72-75-2-25.washdc.east.verizon.net] has left #theoildrum []
[09:56]lol @ all the arms
[09:56]Vapor, although this is techporn, I don't believe there is a need for fluffers. ;)
[09:56]markets have already concluded that BP will not be operating in the US after this
[09:56] == Barrel [~d953d4c0@gateway/web/freenode/x-kpjahorcmdfvubsd] has quit [Client Quit]
[09:56] == jg [~janisgore@adsl-67-143-117.shv.bellsouth.net] has joined #theoildrum
[09:56]good one vapor :)
[09:56]lol
[09:56]how the hell dpes pceaneeing go down?
[09:56]market is down generally due to china not doing as well as people had hoped.
[09:56] == Parthenon [~parth@cpe-076-182-120-098.nc.res.rr.com] has joined #theoildrum
[09:56]JoeBeets: "BP just hired Dick Cheney's press secretary to handle PR." Is he the guy who suggested "go fuck yourself"? 'cause he's aweome!
9:48am ET: Ok, they're showing us again...giant shears/diamond saw in action:
9:41am ET: Video clips from 9am-9:30am, during which time BP takes our eyes away from what is happening...people are furious (naturally). Will keep watching...
9:38am ET: Video clips uploading to you-tube...At least two other ROV's are watching the action, and this is the view that BP gives the public:
9:21am ET Now their blocking us from seeing what is happening...
Closest thing to a running commentary, once again, is here (enter your free register Oil Drum "nickname" and then #theoildrum in the boxes). The actual cutting may take around two minutes. The pipe is expected to bend at the cut, and release a shitload of oil (obviously)...from the moment the riser is cut, the amount of oil being spilled will increase dramatically (from the already third worse spill in history, at 70,000-100,000 barrels/day), so the next sequence of events is fairly crucial.
Update 8:50am ET (Tuesday): There is clearly another ROV helping guide the craw, visible in this capture, but we're not getting to see that feed (perhaps never have been).
Update: My that's a big pair of shears. Things may be about to get quite ugly.
See links in the comments, and here's another more or less recent vid. Top screencaps are from around 8:30am ET, LMRP image is from earlier (BP's feed appears to be looping, but CNN's is here).
From here:
...is presumably the next momentous thing that needs to happen (if it hasn't already). All kinds of risks involved, one would imagine. Updated post is below; I may continue to update this one (mostly for myself, if no-one minds). They are currently maneuvering the piece that goes on the cut riser. We may be about to get a look at the riser...but probably more likely just the (leaking) package.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
