Saturday, May 29, 2010

"explosions" "raining down"

Apparently these words became acceptable to the only experts currently serving the public, late last night:
UPDATE: (9:19 PM [CT]) Friday - There have been at least two and possibly as many as four times today that there has been something that looks like an explosion, and debris rains around, and for a while the ROV cameras go and look at something else (right now it is the riser outflow that we haven't seen for a while).


The riser outflow looks like shit, from this view some distance above. It seems fairly clear that yesterday's reports they've abandoned the top kill were correct, despite some continued junk shot efforts. The BOP may have been blown off and/or removed altogether, and the blowout(s) seems to have worsened in degree and is (are) now spewing what appears to be pure oil (no more mud).

Also, BP abandoned yesterday(!) the second relief well to direct those resources to try yet another high-risk procedure: placing another BOP on top of the (damaged, or entirely removed?) original BOP that had been(?) slowing the rate of flow, to some unknown degree.

In short, we don't know shit. But lots of people are volunteering hours of their time speculating, while BP's decision-making transparency remains practically non-existent.

Congratulations to BP for having reached 150 million gallons!

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

I see no explosion. Just the plume, the camera panning up, along with a lighting change as you'd expect when the light source is from the ROVs, and then a lot of coverage of a point higher up the plume, where it is larger and more diffuse. No doubt terrible things are happening, but I don't think your speculation about "explosions" is helpful...

Matt Christie said...

Maybe you're right. I'm not an expert. It certainly looked like something changed (beyond the angle of the camera), to me as well as others who are experts (see The Oil Drum).

I don't propose to be helpful, beyond pressuring those who do now what may be going on to come clean and tell us truthfully about it. BP's record thus far (and the government's unwillingness to confront them on it) is simply criminal.

Thanks Anonymous.

Matt Christie said...

[know]

Matt Christie said...

I also agree with those who think the controversial junk shots are largely responsible for these apparent blasts, large chunks of debris raining down, and changes in the plume and flow. (Obviously.)

Frankly your opinion would appear to be in the minority among those qualified to comment, at this point. Call it something besides a series of bursts, ruptures or "explosions" followed by raining debris if you want. That word seems apt to me. I'm sure BP would use a different word.

bigcitylib said...

I actually saw the latter part of the event you caught on vid, but missed 2 through 4. Any idea if those have been caught anywhere? Be interesting to compare.

Interesting thought that the guy from OD thinks its more than just the ROV moving around.

Matt Christie said...

In any event the questions remain: why would the ROV move upward so sudeently to begin with, and appear to spin out of control and then go dormant for almost an hour, all the while showing footage never seen during the previous month+....

ETc

Matt Christie said...

hey bigcity,

I'm not sure what sections exactly you are referring to.

If you're asking if someone else has a duplicate (and better) quality video than the two hours from yesterday's live cam that I do, from around 7:15-9:15 (and that I still possess, beyond what's been poorly converted to post on you-tube), the only place I've seen it is on CNN's (severely truncated, 5 minutes with bad music) summary, linked above.

Haven't read the OD today, but I did see that BP's live feed is just floating underwater pointed at the blank (again), doing absolutely nothing, while CNN's independent feed is still monitoring the plume from far above (no sign of the BOP, or alleged severing of riser pipe, cf. Huffington–Huffington whose coverage has turned distinctly cautious, conservative and senile, I must say.)

Ariana must be giving the billionaires at BP the benefit of the doubt, when it comes down to the wire...fellow tax bracketeers and all.

Matt Christie said...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/05/29/bp-says-so-far-gulf-well-_n_594501.html

Matt Christie said...

Upon looking again just now at CNN's feed (same from this morning, only an obviously even thicker, denser plume (of almost entirely pure black–oil), it seems to me the rise is just sitting there, already severed (and the oil is coming from much deeper below).

So obvious I'm surprise the OD hadn't been reporting on it this morning, frankly.

That the Huffpo is reporting as the most "breaking" news an alleged attempt to sever/cut the riser itself as the "next step" makes perfect sense, if this has been old news for some time now (that is, all day and a half at the least).

Unless I'm completely wrong of course...

Matt Christie said...

Wait that makes no fucking sense, so I must be completely wrong.

bigcitylib said...

I'm thinking of this line:

"There have been at least two and possibly as many as four times today that there has been something that looks like an explosion."

The one you filmed is only the first of these. Or no?

Matt Christie said...

Right, sorry. Yes that's strange. There's some mention of them in the OD comment thread on Friday afternoon (and evening? they're in a different time zone), basically to the effect of "there's another one." But then nobody seems to have bothered to record any evidence; it's just fodder for new speculation (of which there are so many, and so many random ideas) it's really not much help.

Not exactly journalism that's going over there; it's something else. More like a message board, group or listserv for industry insiders and random engineers.

I'd sure like to see more footage as well, if anybody has some...CNN's not exactly sharing.

Anonymous said...

Perhaps they mostly just wanted to reassert their authority on the issue, who knows.

Matt Christie said...

...granted, my feelings toward the site may have been bent somewhat b/c of the way some people responded with knee-jerk derision both over there and in nasty personal comments here (which I deleted) when I deigned to share the video I had salvaged and uploaded (rather painstakingly, because I had never done so before). The footage people in the comments were asking and looking for, it might be added. "How dare you comment as a non-expert" was the general gist of it.

I have never claimed to be an expert. The bottom line seems to be that the unemployed (or overpaid with too much time on their hands, or retired, or whatever) experts and self-proclaimed experts at OD have just about as little idea what's really happening as the general public does. They just obsess about it more (which is better than nothing, if it succeeds in putting any pressure on the criminals at BP, don't get me wrong).